China Russia documents reveal Starlink counter strategy
From a routine search to a classified cache
Three European news organizations — The Insider, Der Spiegel, and Le Monde — did not set out to find a plan to destroy Starlink They were investigating the broader scope of military-technical cooperation between China and Russia. During that work, reporters gained access to a cache of documents that had never been made public. The documents included four classified presentations and a 2023 protocol from a previously undisclosed China-Russia Military-Technical Cooperation Forum. [1] The first such forum took place in 2023. A sixth gathering is scheduled for the end of this year in St. Petersburg, the reporters said. .
The documents show a partnership that has moved ‘well beyond shared rhetoric into a structured, multi-disciplinary program to build weapons neither country could develop alone,’ the publications wrote Among the topics covered were integrated air and missile defense systems, autonomous “swarm” loitering munitions, next-generation armored vehicles, and military aviation. But one presentation, most likely prepared by the Chinese side, was entirely dedicated to countering the Starlink constellation owned by SpaceX. That presentation laid out a multi-stage strategy for neutralizing the satellite network.
Earlier assumptions now appear incomplete
Until this reporting, public understanding of China-Russia space cooperation rested largely on shared political statements and occasional joint exercises. The documents reveal a far deeper operational partnership. The presentation on Starlink treats the constellation not merely as a military target but as a structural threat to access to space itself. The authors argue that the growing number of Starlink satellites in orbit constitutes a form of “space blockade.” This blockade, they claim, makes it difficult for other nations to use both occupied orbits and key electromagnetic spectrum bands.
Based on this reasoning, the presentation concludes that an attack on Musk’s constellation could be considered an act of self-defense — to preserve the ability to use low Earth orbit (LEO). The strategy is organized as a three-stage escalation ladder. At the first rung, China and Russia would build an international coalition to advocate for regulations limiting the further growth of Starlink’s satellite numbers. At the second level, both states would work in close coordination to occupy key orbital slots and frequencies within organizations such as the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). This type of “space reservation” is already taking place. Evidence includes a Chinese application to the ITU covering 200,000 satellites from December 2025.
The third and final rung involves strictly military measures. The authors make a significant distinction here between non-kinetic actions in the cyber and electromagnetic domains and the physical destruction of satellites. The first variant — cyber and electromagnetic attacks — would essentially be an intensification of the ongoing hybrid war in space, using viruses and malware on a larger scale. A kinetic attack would be far more consequential. The key to its success, the authors conclude, is breaking the resilience of the entire system. This means eliminating satellites faster and more cheaply than SpaceX could replace the losses.
The practical gap between ambition and execution
The documents describe a range of anti-satellite weapons that could be used for a kinetic attack. These include both direct-ascent systems and co-orbital systems, which both countries are intensively developing. The Insider also mentions the concept of placing a dense cloud of debris or swarm ASAT satellites in orbit, which would destroy everything in their path But the presentation itself acknowledges a fundamental challenge. Starlink’s distributed architecture is perceived as its greatest strength. Thousands of satellites and an even greater number of mobile terminals mean that neutralizing only a portion of them does not necessarily lead to the paralysis of the entire decentralized system.
The number of satellites is not only the foundation of the constellation’s resilience but, according to the presentation, also the source of its offensive, even provocative, nature. The authors of the presentation emphasize Starlink’s exceptional effectiveness on the Ukrainian battlefield, where it is said to provide Ukraine with an asymmetric intelligence and operational advantage. The documents show that China and Russia view this capability as a direct threat. Yet the documents also reveal that neither country has a proven method for destroying satellites faster than SpaceX can launch replacements. The six scheduled forums through the end of this year suggest that the work remains ongoing — and that a workable, reliable countermeasure is still out of reach.
Sources
1. The Insider
2. Der Spiegel
3. Le Monde
4. SpaceX